Have you ever asked yourself what the odds of you being you, are? The answer will bring you down some very geeky roads with large numbers, obviously. Using something tangible helps with wrapping our heads around some of the answers. Keep in mind, it is commonly believed that something has zero probability of occurring (or is “mathematically impossible”) at 1 in 1×1050 (that’s 1 with 50 zeros behind it).
So, let us start out with a simple 52 card deck. Have you ever heard of the term 52 factorial? Well, that is the mathematical equation of the number of possible outcomes you will get when you shuffle a deck of cards. The 52 factorial equals 8.0658×1067. It is said that a 52 card deck has never been in the same order as when you last shuffled it. Never.
To express the 52 factorial in ways we might understand, Scott Czepiel, a data scientist also known as “czep,” shares insights and experiences related to data analysis, variables, and observations. He approaches analytics as a blend of science, engineering, and art. He came up with a way. The following is paraphrased from czep.net:
Stand at the equator and set a timer (in seconds) to the 52 factorial. Then…
1. Take 1 step every billion years. The equatorial circumference of the Earth is 40,075,017 meters.
2. Every time you circle the earth take 1 drop (0.05ml) of water out of the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Ocean contains 707.6 million cubic kilometers of water.
3. Repeat 1 & 2 until the Pacific is empty.
4. Lay 1 sheet of paper down on the ground. Refill the ocean so you can start over. Add a sheet of paper to your stack each time you empty the Pacific. The thickness of each piece of paper is 0.004 inches.
5. Repeat 1 – 4 until the stack of papers reaches the sun. The distance from the Earth to the Sun is 93 million miles.
6. Take the stack down and repeat this process 1,000 times. Then look at your timer and you will see that you’re only 1/3 of the way done with 5.38567 seconds remaining.
So you mix things up a little bit with the remaining time.
1. Deal yourself 5 cards every billion years.
2. Repeat until you get a royal flush (you are 5 times more likely to get struck by lightning than see 2 royal flushes at 1:2,598,960 for a royal flush). Then buy a mega millions lottery ticket (odds are 1:302,575,350).
3. Repeat 1-2 until you win, then place a single grain of sand in the Grand Canyon.
4. Repeat 1-3 until the Grand Canyon is filled, then remove 1 oz of rock from mount Everest until it’s leveled. Mount Everest is said to weigh about 357 trillion pounds. Look at your timer and you still have 5.36467 seconds remaining.
5. Repeat this 256 times and the 52 factorial clock is done!
Now, what makes this thought exercise so interesting? The odds of you being you makes 52 factorial look insignificant! You are 1 of 8 billion people on this earth. While the odds of you having a child are high in comparison, the odds of you being you are astronomically slim. While women have a set number of eggs, men can produce over a trillion sperm cells throughout their lives. Only one combination of these could have resulted in you. Any other and you would not be here.
The odds of your parents ever even meeting to begin with was 1:200 million, and that’s assuming they were in the same part of the world. And then staying together long enough to even have children you have to increase that 1:200 million by a factor of 20,000.
The odds of all this happening are 1:400 quadrillion (4+17 zeros). That’s just you and your parents! Now repeat that same thing going back in your family tree.
A study from Harvard assuming 150,000 generations put a number on the odds of you being you at 1:102,640,000. They presuppose evolution of course, but even adjusted to a creation timeline it comes out to 1:105,280.
Consider this in relation to our Lord and Savior. What are the odds of Christ being Christ? There is more to think about than just His historically verifiable existence. The Bible also gives 333 prophecies about the Messiah. About 70 major and 270 complex. The Old Testament was completed 250 years before Jesus’ birth. The United States isn’t even that old. Here are just 8 of them that Jesus had absolutely no control over. These are not self-fulfilling prophecies.
1. The place of his birth. Micah 5:2, “But thou, Bethlehem Ephratah, though thou be little among the thousands of Judah, yet out of thee shall he come forth unto me that is to be ruler in Israel; whose goings forth have been from of old, from everlasting.”
2. The time of his birth. Malachi 3:1, “Behold, I will send my messenger, and he shall prepare the way before me: and the Lord, whom ye seek, shall suddenly come to his temple, even the messenger of the covenant, whom ye delight in: behold, he shall come, saith the LORD of hosts.”
3. The manner of his birth. Isaiah 7:14, “Therefore the Lord himself will give you a sign. Behold, the virgin shall conceive and bear a son, and shall call his name Immanuel.”
4. His betrayal by a friend for 30 pieces of silver. Zechariah 11:12-13, “And I said unto them, If ye think good, give me my price; and if not, forbear. So they weighed for my price thirty pieces of silver. And the LORD said unto me, Cast it unto the potter: a goodly price that I was prised at of them. And I took the thirty pieces of silver, and cast them to the potter in the house of the LORD.”
5. & 6. Manner of death & the people’s reaction. Psalm 22 describes his death 800 years before Rome invented it. Psalm 22:11-18, “Be not far from me; for trouble is near; for there is none to help. Many bulls have compassed me: strong bulls of Bashan have beset me round. They gaped upon me with their mouths, as a ravening and a roaring lion. I am poured out like water, and all my bones are out of joint: my heart is like wax; it is melted in the midst of my bowels. My strength is dried up like a potsherd; and my tongue cleaveth to my jaws; and thou hast brought me into the dust of death. For dogs have compassed me: the assembly of the wicked have inclosed me: they pierced my hands and my feet. I may tell all my bones: they look and stare upon me. They part my garments among them, and cast lots upon my vesture.
7. Not having a bone broken. Psalm 34:20, “He keepeth all his bones: not one of them is broken.”
8. His Burial. Isaiah 53:8-12, “He was taken from prison and from judgment: and who shall declare his generation? for he was cut off out of the land of the living: for the transgression of my people was he stricken. And he made his grave with the wicked, and with the rich in his death; because he had done no violence, neither was any deceit in his mouth. Yet it pleased the LORD to bruise him; he hath put him to grief: when thou shalt make his soul an offering for sin, he shall see his seed, he shall prolong his days, and the pleasure of the LORD shall prosper in his hand. He shall see of the travail of his soul, and shall be satisfied: by his knowledge shall my righteous servant justify many; for he shall bear their iniquities. Therefore will I divide him a portion with the great, and he shall divide the spoil with the strong; because he hath poured out his soul unto death: and he was numbered with the transgressors; and he bare the sin of many, and made intercession for the transgressors.”
Dr. Stoners, head of mathematics and astronomy at Pasadena city college for years as well as Westmount college in Santa Barbara, along with 600 of his students came up with this. The odds of just these 8 prophecies happening by blind luck is 1:1017. You could cover the state of Texas 2 feet deep in silver dollars and put an “X” on one of them, blindfold someone and have them choose one. If they pick up the “X” coin on the first try, then you can say these 8 prophecies were blind luck. But wait, now realize that 29 prophecies were fulfilled in 1 day. A SINGLE DAY. Now factor in that there are over 300 prophecies about Christ.
Think of this in conclusion. The odds that creation just happened to be, on top of you being you, on top of Christ being Christ… How can anyone say that “all this is by chance?” We see that life is utterly unique. God has created us with a purpose in mind. It is not blind chance. The building blocks of just one cell are so complex science can’t explain how it came to be without using God as the starting point. Evolutionists jump from one theory to another like a frog in a pond. If the comparatively simple things like 52 factorial can be determined by mathematics, science, and reason then why do we try to discount God’s abilities? I guess we are not smart enough to be atheists. We accept that the sky is blue, and while we may study on why it’s blue, we don’t call it silver.
