A Bureaucratic Transition
Switzerland has taken a very progressive turn, relocating their civil registry offices to the land of make believe. Want to change genders? Simply fill out a form! No pesky therapy or messy medical procedures required. Must be 16 years of age to apply. Switzerland is one of over 20 countries worldwide to make the switch that simple. What is surprising is the rapidity with which change has come to the traditionally conservative nation. Gay marriage, and the ability of those couples to adopt children, was only legalized last year.
Distracted
North Korea has capitalized on the world’s preoccupation with Russia and Ukraine. Year to date, they have fired more missiles than ever before for a comparable time period. South Korea also claims the North is reopening an underground nuclear test site. This escalation may have multiple aims. A new president is about to take office in South Korea. Yoon Suk-yeol, a conservative, has spoken strongly about increasing security ties with the US as well as purchasing an advanced missile defense system and the potential need for a preemptive strike on North Korea. Kim Jong-un, ever the posturing strong man, may feel the need to assert himself in light of this. He may also be positioning to have something to offer should negotiations resume, possibly stopping weapons testing in exchange for sanctions relief.
Enlarging the Schengen Zone
Croatia, an EU member since 2013, has just been added to the borderless Schengen Area. Including some non-EU members, 27 countries are now part of the area. Allowing free movement across check-free borders has been essential to European integration. Croatia’s effort to join the zone was nearly derailed shortly after it requested admission in 2015. Neighbors threatened to veto Croatia’s membership for allowing migrants to penetrate the bloc. Since then Croatia has also been criticized for handling migrants too harshly, reportedly forcing them back over its borders after crossing and not allowing requests for asylum to be made. Regardless, the EU has now deemed it is up to the task of regulating their shared external border.
Israeli-Jordanian Cooperation
There has been a rash of new agreements between Israel and its traditionally hostile neighbors following the Abraham Accords. A groundswell of formal relations, private business dealings, and reciprocal tourism have contributed to a reality virtually unfathomable only a few years ago. Previously, even international travelers were not not admitted to most Middle Eastern countries if they had first been to Israel. Not so anymore. One notable development has been the signing of a deal between Israel and Jordan to exchange water for electricity. While potentially unpopular in Jordan, the deal would alleviate serious shortages facing the Kingdom by piping desalinated water across Israel from the Mediterranean coast. Israel procures the vast majority of its freshwater from desalination, a technology it pioneered. In return for water, Jordan will provide electricity from a massive solar facility to be constructed in cooperation with Masdar, a company owned by the UAE.
Blacklisting Xinjiang
This province of China is the target of new U.S. sanctions. Xinjiang has become infamous as the site of internment and “reeducation” camps for Uyghur Muslims. Reports have been surfacing for years about the inhuman treatment and forced labor they are subjected to. Many major multinational corporations have operations in the region, though that is likely to change in the face of the new sanctions. Intel has already begun to move. Simply sanctioning the region is unlikely to solve the real problem however. The laborers themselves are routinely exported to other areas. While allegedly “voluntary,” workers are maintained in prison-like circumstances. Kept under 24 hour guard and housed onsite, they are segregated by gender, worked long hours, and are unable to leave or communicate freely with the outside world. These sanctions are merely a sop to those outraged about this ongoing atrocity. That so little has been done about it is a testament to China’s growing influence and how dependent so many of the world’s wealthy and powerful are on cheap Chinese labor and products.
New German Chancellor
Angela Merkel’s retirement has shaken up the German political scene. Having been in power since 2005, many believe she would have been victorious in the recent elections had she chosen to run. Her departure, and the failure of the CDU’s new party leader, Armin Laschet, to instill confidence, led to their worst electoral outcome in years. Taking only 24.1% of the vote, the CDU now finds itself in opposition. The SPD, under Olaf Scholz, came out on top with 25.7% of the vote. A new coalition government has been formed with Scholz at the helm by partnering with the Greens (14.8%) and the FDP (11.5%).
Some explanation of what the parties represent may be helpful. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), now on top under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is considered center-left. Its history is interesting. With Marxist roots it formed the Wiemar Republic, stood in opposition to the Nazi’s rise, and continued to be a factor in both East and West Germany. It is both progressive and socialist and is very much in favor of European unity.
The Greens are just that, focused primarily on environmentalism but also devoted to social justice and a federal Europe. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is a bit of an anomaly. While pro-business and individual freedom, they embrace government involvement in certain social issues (such as the environment and LGBT) and are alternately for or against more European integration.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is considered center-right. Some of Merkel’s policy choices (like immigration) drove more conservative members of the CDU away. Also in opposition are the Alternative for Germany (AFD) with 10.3%. Considered far-right, they gained popularity during the migration crisis and disapprove of the European Union. The Left (Die Linke) are what they say. Essentially Communist, they are in favor of more government intervention, though not necessarily at the European level. They favor social justice and oppose capitalism. They received 4.9% of the vote in the last election.
As the leading European economy, changes in Germany have repercussions for the entire world. Facing off against Russian and Chinese aggression or renewed migratory pressures may be difficult for a coalition that has largely been built on domestic social issues. Scholz has made sweeping pledges on digitalization, combating climate change, fighting COVID-19, and affirming LGBT rights as well as increasing government spending and making it easier to receive German citizenship. However it plays out politically, the effect on Germany’s leadership role post-Merkel will be an important thing to watch.
Rise of the Pig-Men
Certain animals are genetically more similar to humans than others. White mice, for instance, are routinely used in medical research. Gene editing has taken it a step further. Who can forget the “humanized” mice that were being used in Wuhan? Scientists are now applying that technology to the problem of organ transplants. Pig hearts are remarkably similar to human hearts. An embryo is modified to remove differences that could cause the human immune system to reject the pig heart. This clone is implanted in a mother pig, carried to term, and allowed to mature before the organ is harvested. A man in the United States has already successfully received a heart procured in this manner. (The recipient died two months later, although not because his body rejected the organ.) To reduce the potential complications from cloning every individual pig, a new breed is being developed in Europe. Though derived from clone parents, the breed will reproduce in the old fashioned way. The impact on the organ transplant business is expected to be enormous. The main objections come from animal rights activists.
Over Stimulated
Repercussions from the massive government interventions of recent years are becoming too obvious to ignore. Price pressures and inflation are resulting in reality checks at many central banks. The Bank of England has already raised interest rates to combat this, even as energy suppliers are forced to keep their prices so artificially low that it’s literally putting many of them out of business. The alternative would essentially bankrupt the middle class. The European Central Bank has been forced to revise its outlook after its prediction that inflation would drop was soundly refuted by the latest data. January came in at 5.1%. Compare that to their ideal target of 2%. The Bank of England predicts a peak of over 7% this coming summer. The fear is that necessary rate increases will destroy the current feeble economic recovery, the worst case scenario for regulators. Similar pressures are facing the USA.
Fog of War
This phrase, coined to describe the disorientation often experienced by soldiers in battle, might rightly be applied to some of the major foreign policy flip-flops we’ve been seeing. Having sanctioned Russian oil and gas, the US and allies are scrambling to replace that supply before it is officially cut off at the end of April. Venezuela is likely to benefit immensely. Its massive oil reserves could easily surmount current shortages. Provided he releases some American prisoners and commits to “talks” with opposition parties about “free and honest elections,” Maduro could very well save the day, as ludicrous as that seems.
Iran could fill a similar gap for Europe. Negotiations to revive the nuclear deal continue to wind towards a conclusion. Russia hopes to exempt business it does with Iran from sanctions inside of its framework. Iran continues to violate the agreement in new and different ways, even as they work to have it reinstated. Additionally, they have successfully put a second military satellite into space. The rocket technology this requires is the same that is used for delivering an ICBM. These transgressions may very well be overlooked as Western nations become desperate to ease energy prices. Whatever the necessity of the moment may dictate, the problem itself has been brought about by dependence on unpredictable autocrats. Could a real solution possibly consist of the same thing?
Too Corny
Ethanol, it turns out, is not as green as they thought it was. Sure, growing corn to ferment into alcohol to add to gasoline, which would require adaptions in engine technology and harm those not designed to deal with it sounded like a good idea. Never mind it made food more expensive as farmers turned to growing ethanol corn, for which they were subsidized, instead of other crops because we’re talking about renewable fuel people! What could be greener? That’s why Congress mandated it be added to gasoline in ever increasing amounts back in 2005.
But wait! It turns out all of the intensive processes required to make ethanol are not made up for by the fact that it releases less CO2 than regular gasoline. It’s actually worse for the environment! The horror! Apparently the studies that led to its utilizations were wrong. Can that even happen?! Or worse, they were inherently biased by the desire to reach a certain conclusion. Or worse still, they were influenced by other, more worldly, considerations…
Hong Kong Long Gone
Recent elections have solidified Beijing’s control over the former British Territory. Only “patriots” were allowed to run for office after passing official government scrutiny. This new twist, along with the “security laws” enacted over the past couple of years and the excuse the pandemic gave to limiting public gatherings, have left many with little hope for the survival of democracy in Hong Kong. Barely 30% of the population voted, less than half the number from 2016, in what many have called a boycott. That aside, the patriotic winners will be governing as if they were the true representatives of the people.
