by Mark Armstrong
The United States has sent the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group to the Persian Gulf after getting some warning that Iran is plotting to attack American interests in the region. The warning came (reportedly) from intelligence gathered by Mossad, the Israeli intelligence organization. There is not yet any detail on what Iran may be planning, but a floating military base bristling with warplanes may be the answer to every question.
In April 2019, the U.S. announced the end of exemptions from sanctions for nations continuing to buy Iranian oil. India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey all buy oil from Iran, but China accounts for half of Iran’s oil sales. All five have profitable trade relationships with the United States, presumably of much greater importance than the importation of Iranian oil. Any that continue buying from Iran will be liable for fines or other trade sanctions from the U.S., possibly even banishment from U.S. markets.
Iran is said to earn $50 billion annually from the sales of oil, some 40% of their annual revenue. The Iranian economy is already struggling with shortages of imported necessities and high inflation. Once these new sanctions kick in, Iran may experience even more severe difficulties.
Saudi Arabia is an ally of the United States and long-term enemy of Iran. It is one likely source of oil for nations that will have to stop buying from Iran. American media is highly critical of Saudi Arabia, more-so since the alleged murder of U.S. resident Khashoggi at the Saudi embassy in Islamabad, Turkey.
At this writing, no one is sure who or what group is responsible for the sabotage of four oil tankers anchored in Persian Gulf ports. Two were Saudi tankers, one Norwegian and one owned by the UAE. Preliminary investigations point to Iran or its proxies as the culprits. Iran wildly claims that it was the U.S. that blew holes in the ships so that the action could be blamed on Iran as a pretext for hostilities. In other words, Trump did it. That sounds about right, just like all the bluster we’ve heard from the radical Islamic regime since 1979.
Iran has for years been threatening to “close” the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would cripple the world economy if oil couldn’t exit the Middle East by that route. We’ve heard this threat repeatedly over the years, make that decades, and it’s not entirely clear that Iran is able to make good on that threat, particularly with an American carrier on the scene. The “narrow choke-point” is after all 20 miles wide, but the shipping lanes are only about three miles wide. It’s not as if sinking one or two ships in the straight would make passage impossible, but you wouldn’t know that by reliance on mainstream media reports. However, ships are clearly vulnerable on their way through the Strait, and Iran continues threatening as if it has the ability to shut down 20% of the world’s energy exports with the wave of a wand. Good luck with that.
The other Iranian threat causing international consternation is that they’ll ramp up their nuclear program once again. But that bluster is fraught with additional complications. You’ll remember that nearly all European nations decided to break with President Trump when he pulled the United States out of the sham known as the “Nuclear Agreement” with Iran. Former president Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry regarded it as something that would stand as a “legacy” accomplishment in the realm of international relations.
There was no small amount of consternation when President Trump revoked the “deal.” John Kerry may yet feel reverberations from his attempts to preserve what was left of the arrangement with European nations after the U.S. pulls out.
Those who worry aloud for a living say that President Trump is receiving bad advice from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security advisor John Bolton. Bolton is seen by his critics as a “hawk” who envisions an inevitable war between the United States and Iran. The imposition of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group into the Persian Gulf is being blamed largely on Bolton’s influence by his many critics in the establishment media.
They point out that the carrier group, anywhere in the Persian Gulf, will be a provocation to Iran. Recent experience shows that Iran will at least attempt to harass U.S. forces with high-speed gun boats if not aircraft. “What could go wrong?” they ask rhetorically. Any confrontation between the U.S. and Iran would likely bring the Russians into the fray, perhaps other Middle Eastern nations and even the Chinese. Next thing you know, a World War has been instigated and it’s all Trump’s fault!
China, which buys fully half of Iran’s exported oil, is the wild card. As everybody knows, a trade deal between the U.S. and China hangs in the balance. If China refuses to honor U.S. sanctions against the purchase of Iranian oil, negotiations for a trade deal with America may face yet another complication. Trump’s critics call it a full blown “Trade War!” He calls it a squabble in which the U.S. holds all the cards. But back to Iran.
Iran’s Islamic regime hates Israel and the United States with unbridled passion. It has also expanded its sphere of influence to include Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. As the whole world knows, the rockets that keep getting fired out of Gaza into Israel are produced in Iran for the very purpose of being fired at Israel.
The militant, brink-of-war mentality that grips the entirety of the Middle East is all about control of Jerusalem and the fact that Israel is the Jewish homeland. That is one reality that the Iranians and every known terrorist group refuse to accept. Not only are they willing to die for their angry hatred, they’d be more than happy to see the world plunged into all out war.
You may have seen that the U.S. Embassy in Iraq was evacuated of all non-essential personnel in mid-May. It was only a few days afterward that apparently some Shiite militia group fired a missile into the American sector known as the Green Zone. The missile didn’t hit the embassy, but it came too close for comfort. Was this what Israeli intelligence warned about? Or is there more?
President Trump responded by saying, “If the mullahs want to fight, that will be the official end of Iran.” Wouldn’t you have loved to be a fly on the wall when the weird holy men were delivered that statement?
There will undoubtedly be more wild threats from the radical Islamic regime, and who knows? If the mullahs want conflict, Trump will be happy to oblige whether Russia, China, or for that matter the nations of Europe, like it or not.
