By Michael Armstrong
The future of the Europe Union has been clouded by Italian political turmoil. After elections in March, Italy’s path is anything but clear. Attempts have been made to block the formation of a government by populist parties Lega and the Five Star Movement. These populist platforms continue to gain popularity across Europe and pose a serious threat to continued integration. The uncertainty this creates shakes the very foundation of an already fragile European Union.
To call the machinations of European politics convoluted would be a serious understatement. Each country’s elections feature a multitude of parties running on platforms that defy comprehension as “liberal” or “conservative” according to the political norms of the United States. To expound the intricacies is not our intent. However, even a limited understanding is indispensable when attempting to appreciate the potential impact of the events transpiring in Italy.
The biggest winner in March’s Italian elections was the Five Star Movement with over 32% of the vote. Many members emphasize that Five Star is a “movement” rather than a political party and insist it cannot be classified in the traditional left-right paradigm. Its platform embraces environmentalism as well as many progressive social programs. But it also vehemently opposes unlimited immigration and is sharply critical of the European Union usurping the right of the Italian people to self-determination.
Lega (Italian for “league”) also performed well in the elections. They brought in the third most votes at almost 18%, only 1% less than the Democratic Party. Lega opposes what it calls the “European Superstate” and advocates for the abandonment of the euro. Leaders have even described some eurozone fiscal rules as “enslaving” Italians.
Five Star Movement and Lega have capitalized on Italian frustration with the EU, and opinion polls show more popular support for them today than at the time of the elections in March. However, disagreements between the two have been great enough to prevent them from forming a government as of yet. Giuseppe Conte, prospective Prime Minister of the Five Star/Lega coalition recently resigned when nominated Minister of Finance, Paolo Savona, was vetoed by President Mattarella.
“I asked for that ministry an authoritative political figure from the coalition parties who was not seen as the supporter of a line that could provoke Italy’s exit from the euro,” Mattarella said, “The uncertainty over our position within the euro has alarmed Italian and foreign investors who have invested in securities and companies.”
The President is supposed to be politically neutral and the veto was without precedent in recent history. This has resulted in calls for his impeachment by leaders of the Five Star Movement. Salvini, the head of Lega, has attributed the move to pressure from other countries and financial lobbies. He is quoted as saying, “We won’t have Germany tell us what to do,” that Italy wasn’t a “colony,” and “In a democracy, if we are still in a democracy, there’s only one thing to do, let the Italians have their say.”
Five Star leader Di Maio is also on record saying, “I hope that we can give the floor to Italians as soon as possible, but first we need to clear things up. First, the impeachment of Mattarella…then to the polls.” Should efforts to form a government ultimately fail, another general election would take place, likely strengthening the position of both parties. Regardless, the lingering uncertainty is taking its toll on markets.
Some of Italy’s largest financial institutions lost 20% of their value following news of the veto and the potential for more elections. The effects were also felt in the bond market. The cost of borrowing money went up for Italy, and the value of the euro plummeted. Though some recovery has been made as negotiations to form a government have resumed, this highlights the volatile nature of the situation.
Italy is the third largest economy in the eurozone, and a founding member of the European Union. It is also one of the most indebted nations in the world. An inevitable reality of the common currency is that the fiscal problems of one nation become the problems of all. The Greek debt crisis of recent history is a memorable illustration. Member nations no longer control their own monetary policy and this loss of sovereignty has led to a great deal of discontent.
While continued and increased integration seems to be the agenda in Brussels, national elections evidence a growing resentment with the status quo. The people of Europe may not be ready to hand over their sovereignty to unelected bureaucrats. Even Angela Merkel, a linchpin of the European Union, faced serious opposition in the most recent German elections. Ground was lost to populist parties and it took her six months to form a government. France’s pro-European stance was also tested by the presidential candidacy of Marine Le Pen.
This begins to get to the crux of the matter. The problems of Italy impact all of Europe. The EU, in its present configuration and with its common currency, could not survive the collapse or withdrawal of one of its largest members. The rise in anti-EU sentiment is extremely concerning to those who have tied their political careers and even the futures of their nations to the continuation of the Union. The mere prospect of Italy having another set of elections, which would be a de facto referendum on its future participation in the EU, was enough to elicit dire prognostications across the continent. The consensus is that if Italy leaves the euro it would be the end of the single currency.
Latvian finance minister Dana Reizniece-Ozola is on the record saying, “I think we can see what an impact Brexit has already caused to the EU in general and, if Italy fails to form a government, that might be still pro-European and still dedicated to the reforms and getting the country back within the fiscal stance, that might be a bigger harm to the whole of Europe… We could handle Greece, we could and will handle Brexit but Italy will be too much I think.”
There is no denying the fragility of the current Union. It is vulnerable to turmoil from several of its members. Instability and uncertainty, especially in the larger economies, is damaging to the value of their common currency. All suffer from the effects. The frustration this creates and the assignment of blame can be a serious hindrance to further cooperation and integration.
Those familiar with the teachings of the Church of God over the years know what Bible prophecy lays out for the future of Europe. Its history, the Roman Empire, the successive revivals of the so-called “Holy Roman Empire,” the preeminence of the Catholic Church and the Papacy, leaves little doubt as to its future role. Even in the aftermath of World War II when much of Europe was still smoldering, the Church taught that it would recover, reunite, and become one of the most formidable powers on the face of the earth. The fall of the Berlin wall, the adoption of the single currency, and the continuing push towards integration and central authority have all been steps in this direction.
The rise of populism and a resurgence of nationalism may be the beginning of a new chapter for Europe. For years the irreligious liberalism of stereotypical European philosophy has seemed incompatible with those who “worship the beast” in Bible prophecy. Now financial instability, crippling debt, unsustainable social programs, and mass immigration are changing that. The political platforms that have been most successful of late reflect these changes. Take the Five Star Movement in Italy, with its dedication to protecting the environment but its fierce opposition to immigration as an example. They espouse progressive ideas such as universal Internet access and are now the dominant political force in their country.
Things are definitely changing in Europe. The utterances of the Pope, his departures from traditional Catholic dogma, are startling all by themselves. Sometimes when things change, they do so very quickly. We see strong Germany bound together with unstable Italy and debt laden Greece. The similarity to Daniel’s prophecy, the ten toes partly of iron and partly of clay, partly strong and partly weak, is inescapable. On top of that we find European interests increasingly at odds with those of the United States. The Iranian deal is one example and trade in general has been a point of contention.
Will the European Union be the last chapter for Europe? The challenges facing Italy certainly have the potential to unravel the entire European experiment. Will it fall to pieces, only to be reincarnated into something far more sinister? Time will tell, but any major change will certainly cause repercussions felt around the entire globe. For a glimpse into what the future of Europe will look like read the following article, Prophecies for the End Time, by Garner Ted Armstrong.
