Not all European leaders reacted badly. In fact most issued perfunctory, low key congratulations and a desire to work closely with the new administration. That is not the case with the shell-shocked leaders of the EU. Both France and Germany, in addition to the top echelon of EU leaders are more than a little concerned that their own citizens will take heart from what transpired first in Britain, and now the United States. Europeans are looking at a referendum and a presidential election where a majority rejected a labyrinth of regulations and boundless waves of immigrants.
One of the first responses to the recent U. S. presidential election came from the French Ambassador to the United States Gerard Araud who wrote, “After Brexit and this election, everything is now possible. A world is collapsing before our eyes. Vertigo.” He reportedly posted the comment on social media in what may have been an emotional moment. Perhaps thinking better of putting his panicky reaction out to the world, it was hastily deleted. But it was too late, his quote has seen wide distribution.
French President François Holland was slightly more circumspect. After cursory congratulations, he described the result as a harbinger of “uncertainty.” But the French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls went further in speaking before the National Assembly. He said, “Europe is in danger of falling apart… so France and Germany have a huge responsibility.” He also railed against Great Britain and its decision to reclaim sovereignty from the European Union. “If they are able to have all the advantages of Europe without any of the inconveniences, then we are opening a window for others to leave the European Union.”
Worrying about France’s own elections next year, Valls expressed concern that electoral debate is “ignoring the danger posed by the far-right.” The governing leadership of France is acutely concerned that Marine Le Pen, leader of the anti-EU, anti-immigration National Front may now have a shot of winning next year’s election outright. He said, “We face a historic moment… perilous for the world, perilous for Europe and perilous for France.” For her part, Marine Le Pen was quick to announce, “Congratulations to the new president of the United States Donald Trump and the American people. Free!”
With president Obama only weeks from vacating office, Prime Minister Angela Merkel of Germany is being hailed as the primary remaining champion of “western values.” She spelled out what those are in her cloaked response to the Trump victory. “Germany and America are bound together by values — democracy, freedom, respecting the rule of law, people’s dignity regardless of their origin, the color of their skin, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political views … On the basis of these values, I am offering to work closely with the future President of the United States, Donald Trump.” Would it be too critical to say that she issued a list of conditions under which she would be cooperative? One source has it that two out of three Germans believe that relations with the United States will suffer under the circumstances.
Relations are already suffering with Britain in the aftermath of the “Brexit” referendum. British Prime Minister Theresa May traveled to Berlin in late November to work out an agreement covering British citizens living and working within the EU, and Europeans in the UK. But numerous articles reported that Merkel gave May “the cold shoulder.” Mrs. Merkel refused to consider any such arrangement until after Britain formally triggers “Article 50,” which is the legal step necessary to a formal withdrawal from the EU. Mrs. Merkel’s abrupt denial of Mrs. May’s request is another illustration of the resentment, anger, and yes fear among proponents of the EU in the wake of what they see as “populist revolution” in Britain and America.
Italian Prime Minister Mateo Renzi initially issued a statement of congratulations on the election of Donald Trump, just a matter of days before Italy was to vote in a national referendum on which he’d staked his political career. The referendum was billed as a move toward “legislative reform” which would allow the Prime Minister’s office to enact financial arrangements to do with banking debt bypassing the “smothering bureaucracy” of the Italian Senate. But Italians voted “no” in a crushing electoral defeat which has triggered Renzi’s pending resignation.
The “no” vote in Italy is seen as a continuation of a wave of populism across western civilization that began with Britain’s move to exit the European Union, and continued with Donald Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton, which is viewed as an overthrow of nearly every “transformational” policy of the Obama years. Whether the Italian vote against Renzi’s reforms leads to an eventual separation from the EU will be decided in subsequent elections. The EU is now in a position to have to intervene in the Italian banking crisis to prop up a faltering economy and its financial institutions.
The only bright spot for worried EU officials was the Austrian election, which threatened to see Austria reject immigration quotas, energy mandates and wide-ranging regulations required of European Union member nations. The anti-EU candidate, Norbert Hoffer of the “far-right” Freedom Party was defeated by former Green Party leader Alexander Van der Bellen. Supporters of continued membership in the EU are ecstatic, with one Austrian diplomat boasting, “Austria saved the world!”
Austria represents but a small population in relation to the rest of Europe. The fate of the European Union in the near term will rest on its ability to deal with multiple financial crises across southern Europe and the outcomes of upcoming elections, particularly in Germany and France.
Socialist president François Hollande has dropped out of contention in next year’s election and Prime Minister Manuel Valls has thrown his hat into the ring.
After speculation about her candidacy, Angela Merkel says she’ll defend her position in German elections in 2017.
